‘How would the world be different today if the Aztecs had defeated the Conquistadors?’

Around half the group of scholars (Elizabeth Benson, Richard Diehl, Adje Both, Cecelia Klein, Frances Berdan, Caroline Dodds Pennock, Jane Walsh, Gordon Brotherston, James Maffie, Eric Taladoire, Susan Gillespie, Lori Diel, Warwick Bray...) took a fairly pessimistic view, along the lines of ‘Not much difference, at least in terms of world history’: in the decades to follow, the Spanish would have returned with reinforcements, other European powers (English, Portuguese, French, Dutch...) would have taken their place, and further diseases would have taken their toll. Any respite - though welcome in leading to a greater survival, indeed flourishing, of indigenous culture (CDP, JM) and of the ecology of the central valley (JW) - would only have been temporary. Many of the same factors that brought about the Conquest - from military and technological superiority to the exploiting of local unrest and resentment against the Mexica - would have led to the same fate, simply later on. By failing to finish off the Spanish during La Noche Triste in 1520, the odds were fatefully stacked against the Aztecs: Without taking into account thousands of allies (Tlaxcaltecs, Totonacs), Cortés had from the very beginning of the conquest about 900 men, and received continuous reinforcements. Narvaez’s forces amounted to some 2000 men, and other Spanish ships and fleets brought him hundreds of soldiers. At the eve of Tenochtitlan’s fall, and despite his enormous losses, Cortés still had a much stronger army than at the beginning. The Mexica Empire was doomed... (ET).

What if...?

A dozen or so of our Panel (Gordon Whittaker, Manuel Aguilar-Moreno, Alan Sandstrom, Patrick Lesbre, Joyce Marcus, Michael Coe, Elizabeth Graham, Adrian Locke, Matthew Restall, José Contel, John Bierhorst, Felipe Fernández-Armesto...) offered a range of imaginative and thought-provoking suggestions. Some were short and sweet: Mexico today might have an (Aztec) Emperor as a constitutional monarch rather than a President (JM, MC); Central Mexico might now be part of the United States (MR); there would be an Aztec delegation to the United Nations (MC); Mexico might now be the United States of Anáhuac, or, if the English had conquered, perhaps English might now be spoken in Mexico and Spanish in the USA! (JC). Others, though, were prepared to speculate more profoundly on how the Aztec state and world might have matured: If the Aztecs had succeeded in negotiating with a more conciliatory Spanish embassy, trade agreements would have been established, with time the Aztecs would have given up on human sacrifice (as all other societies have done), and the steady expansion of the Spanish Empire would ultimately have engulfed them - although their fall might not have come for a couple of decades. It is possible that a slower decline or later conquest might have spared Mesoamerica some of the ravages of disease and slavery that it suffered in the 16th century, with the result that the native population could have remained statistically dominant even under Spanish rule. Nahuatl would then have been unstoppable as the lingua franca of the new colony, so that today the official language (or second language) of the region would be “Mexican” (that is, Nahuatl by its Spanish name) (GW).

What if...?

This scenario of a relatively gentle, prosperous, flexible and sustainable development, perhaps along post-contact Japanese lines with many traditional cultural patterns preserved, cannot fail to appeal to us: The land and people would have benefited because indigenous lifeways would have persisted for longer. Cattle and sheep would have been introduced much more slowly as Spanish settlers trickled in, thus the landscape would not have been deforested, grass and grasslands would have been limited, and diseases would not have spread so quickly. Many of the same changes would have taken place, but at a slower pace, giving the Aztecs and their neighbours more time to adjust. Not least, the Aztecs would not have had to pay tribute and taxes to the Spaniards. Instead, the Spaniards would have to have paid tribute and tax to the Aztecs (EG). Further into the future, the situation could reach a point in which Mesoamericans (led by the Aztecs or some other group) would... evolve and be at the same level of development of any other world culture of today (MA-M), leading to a balanced international exchange of technology and culture: Given the sense of urban planning that the Aztec employed and their sense of order and hygiene I would think that the world would have learned a great deal from them in terms of town planning, ordering (and providing for) society and much cleaner people much sooner! (AL). One of the poets on the Panel encourages us indeed to answer the question ‘in a dream’: a dream of a Mexica at peace with their world, instead of at war with Tlaxcala, Huexotzinco, and Chalco ready to jump down their throats at the first chance, and a dream of a unified system of gods, at one from city state to city state, from neighborhood to neighborhood... (JB).

What if...?